A Bad Peace or a Good War: A Structural Estimation Model of Spousal Conict and Divorce

نویسنده

  • Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy
چکیده

After years of changes to divorce laws, the optimal balance between keeping marriages intact, despite sustained spousal con‡ict, and allowing for divorce is still a subject of heated policy debate. To explore the tradeo¤s, I construct a model of household bargaining with information asymmetries which may generate Pareto ine¢ cient outcomes. Parameters of the model are estimated using data on almost 3,900 couples from the National Survey of Families and Households, a nationally representative panel with unique questions on marital con‡ict and spousal beliefs about outside options. The model …ts the data well and has good out-of-sample predictive properties. Simulating the impact of policy changes, I …nd that the elimination of separation period requirements increases the fraction of divorced couples by 8.4 percent and is a weak deterrent to con‡ict. Perfect child support enforcement reduces the incidence of divorce and con‡ict by as much as 9.2 and 18.4 percent, respectively.

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تاریخ انتشار 2007